The recent Second Round Election results and the after math reactions of Wavel Ramkalawan have sent Seychelles into a state of LIMBO. LIMBO in its literal meaning comes from Catholic a Catholic Church Doctrine that describes a dead persons position which is neither heaven or hell, but on the edge of Hell. Read on.
Not Free, Fair, Credible Yet
The biggest contribution to this Limbo status is the lack of Local Observer group credibility stamp of approval and the same for International Observers like SADC and the Commonwealth. After Thirty (30) days, we are still waiting. However, be that as it may, the SADC Observers told us:" the destiny of the people of Seychelles rests with them only".
Petitions Filed
Within the Fourteen (14) day deadline, Wavel Ramkalawan as the Presidential candidate from the opposition filed three cases before the courts. Paper work, paper work. The Chief Justice Mathilda Twomey immediately announced, these cases will be given precedence, given their national importance ( fair enough) and they may take more then Three (3) months to hear. That is a long time. Given the national importance, why did they not change the schedule of the court to run until 7:30 pmeach day, and Saturday?
This matter will drag out, in use meantime, James Michel will become more and more inverted as he awaits his AAA rating from the Courts and of course, those silent international observers, waiting on the courts. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Good question.
Protest SBC
Ramkalawan took the protest to SBC while the Petitions were pending. He detoured the road to State House. Now SBC has a letter from him, which it must deliberate. In the meantime, it is business as usual for SBC. It seems, they too are in LIMBO.
Economy Facing Bad Start
2016 economy in Seychelles is off to a poor start. The lack of snow in Europe, has made our key market a competitor. Travelers are either staying home this January- February or heading to cheap, cheap Vietnam and Thailand, destinations we cannot even dream of competing against.
Pressure on our economy will start to surface by the end of the first quarter, while each night everyone reflects, who will be running the country next year this time.
A Tiny Nation Divided
The irony of the Seychelles LIMBO, is we are in fact near to the edge of hell, not because of the elections, but perhaps because of our attitude. While the country is badly and sorely divided in half, neither side can run the country on its own. But neither side is willing to accept this, and each side is foolishly digging in and drawing the margino lines. This posture will bring chaos to Seychelles.
Direct Cause and Effect
We are already losing a potential wave of Investors who have said, Seychelles is too high risk, given the political " LIMBO" she faces. With the lost of FDI, Liquidity in our system will persist, as already warned to be a problem by the World Bank. Central Bank will continue to issues bonds to raise Reserves. As repayment is due, it will remain as difficult to service External Debt as ever. The Governor is playing Hocus Pocus with our Reserves. A bit of a Ponzi Scheme, she may end up being referred to as the Bernie Maddox of the Indian Ocean if she does not seriously sort her mess out. The pile is building up every day. Quote the World Bank, not me.
Dialogue Or Perish in Limbo
When an entire country is dragged into LIMBO you have problems.
There is no greater calling today, then to demonstrate maturity and seriousness in all affairs that concern our economy, under threat , and our politics, in bottleneck.
All parties must demonstrate sufficient maturity to dialogue. They must all find a way, and commit to dialogue. All sides must turn a page and start a new chapter for the betterment of Seychelles.
Put Seychelles First, and raise Sesel Pou Seselwa to new heights you never thought was possible!
......add a word to your dictionary you thought never existed: " Compromise".
Remember all parties, our Nation is not your personal living room, it is our home.
Sesel Pou Seselwa!
May God Bless All Freedom Loving Seychellois!!
14 comments:
The country,as u brilliantly put it,is frozen in a post~election limbo,.The biggest challenge se,chelles facing today is a chronic desease called leadership paralysis.This desease seems rooted in both pl and the Opposition political spine,but it shut down economic and social systems.
To address the economic and social challenges ,we have to deal with political challenges first,and there is no doubt among right minded people that Seychelles needs a National Dialogue.However,this potential for dialogue is stuck in bankrupt leadership system.Though everyone recognize the need for dialogue,seemingly no one,and no side is willing to take responsibility.
It is conventional wisdom that a successful political dialogue has to be initiated by Michel with the Opposition ,while the later must show its willingness too.Michel must initiate a National Dialogue before the country decends in to the precipice.
The key issue is perhaps on the details of the Dialogue and its intended goal.This should be simpler.The country needs everyone to work together forca better future for al.Pl and,the opposition can not continue to blindly pursue political.
So far both sides have bern apathetic and unablecin crafting an atmosphere conducivr for talks as they have been preoccupied with self~preservation that creates unnessary antagonism..
GROW UP GUYS!!!
Economic indicators do not look good. 2016 for Seychelles will be tough.
We will not have a banner year as last year with 19 % arrivals increase.
Revenue will drop as well as Deflation on world markets make Seychelles too costly a holiday.
At home we will suffer price implosion by mid year on hotel room rates.
Airlines will keep flight prices into Seychelles high in spite of oil dropping to $ 20.00 per barrel by &June 2016.
It is imperative Air Seychelles places additional flight to China market.
This was a SCCI recommendation in 2015 which SHTA opposed.
We must push additional flights out of Frankfurt. From two a week promised by Condor to Three or four.
There is demand.
Prepare for tough times.
The biggest domestic risk facto to Seychelles! continued economic recovery is political uncertainty.While some in the business community may welcome a changing of the old guard and the change for different montary policy and potentialvfor renewed economic growth,what investors dislike most of all is uncertainty.The Seychelles political picture at the moment set to offer only questions.
Jenpa although the world bank warning,liquidity persist.Lack of lon term government money market instruments,might contribute eventually to widespread liquidity crisis in the economy.The government has still not move,to for instance,introduce long~term investments such as Treasury Bills that could help ease,a liquidity crunch.Government paper such as,Treasury Bills which banks would use,as security when borrow,it is a small change,but has big impact.
Financial intermediation is the bloodlife of any economy and bold decisions should be taken without wasting time to turn around the economy.
But starting point should be govt Stock,which would unlock the Central Banks as,a lender of last resort.
Issue Treassury BIlls - banks request advocate Treasury Bills as security- loans released- money flows - business regains ground. This is exactly what Adrian Uzice advise the Governor of the Central Bank 6 months ago.
But the Governor lacks the courage to speak to the banks with a firm hand. They control her instead.
Consequently, the stability of the country- market suffers.
CGill
Typical pl/aficans......you can warn them in advance,they docnothing until the last minutes,when they in shit.
I disclose
In 2015 I had a meeting at Central Bank with the Governor Caroline Abel.
Every single issue highlighted in the World Bank Report 2016 was address in June 2015, we alerted her, and asked her to take action.
Ironically her staff has increased from 45 to over 125 now.
If she does not make the necessary adjustments in the first quarter of 2016 we will not be in a better position at the end of 2016.
Those that get guaranteed pay checks each month will keep on getting paid. Those that struggle with no net revenue will continue to do so.
The core is rotting.
Sesel Pou Seselwa!
Christopher Gill
National Budget has not been released for 2016 YET!
Ministries are yet to have funds to implement programs
Incomptency is unfortunately a quality for pl.One just have to llookat the iinaction of the CB,health and education ministries.
CB has to set priorities.In an ocean of challenges ahead,every thing looks like a priority.
Folowing years of economic mismanagement and bad policies,zhe government suffered from a trust dficit.To repair the economy,confidence had to be rebuilt.
Years of overspending,seychelles dire situation called for fiscal discipline and balancing zhe books.Cash budgeting not only held the key to sustainable economic recovery,but also signaled a clear break wizh the past,.Such small signals are essential to restore confidence .Zhe natural law of cash budgeting is“what we gather is what we,eat,or,we eat what we kill,“Zhis s zhe basic economic law of Hunter~gazherer economies.
Cash budgeting proved to be an effective to tol of fiscal management.
The pendulum is swinging to thevpit,and zhe CB govenor should lead at front,else zhe country would be the nightmare senario for CB.Zhe focus must be the economic and fnancial reforms needed to keep zhevreal growth path.
We repeat .... the economy will take another drive pl.Thecworld wil face economic challenges on multiple front zhis year.
USA FED has began its montary zightening.Europe is struggling to manage migrants and debt crisis.Chinas financial stability is in doubt,for zhe chinese bubble has begun to pop,while emerging economies are increasingly fragile.....What are u waiting for CB to act now?
CB has neglected to account for stress a strong rupee has caused on commercial debt.
Tourism industry is bleeding to death. No one is smart enough in Michel administration to give a shit.
When it lands on your desk, you will blame who?
With political uncertainty already keeping FDIaway,combine wizh CB inaction combined wizh a strong rupee,....u get a poisonious cocktail zhat would kill the country when the coming crisis hits..........an eonomic apocalypse is in thecmaking.
Instead of geting ready by initiating survival/rescue plan,and face what is cddddoming in an orderly way ,CB inaction would amplified zhe the curse coming.
It is clear that with coming crisis ahead,a strong currency,seycheles ability to be a competitive tourist destination will sufffer greatly.That says also less foreign exchange,colapsing businesses,more unemployment,.......which might force govt toborrow more and more to stay,afloat....etc.....
Is CB bllind or in disaray?
We must destroy to rebuild!
In view of high interest,rate currently in the economy,there is scope for reduction to ensure that lending rates are supportive of economic recovering,.By doing so,it would ease companiies! Drbt burdens and curb rxpanding downward risk.In fact,even lower benchmark deposit rates,is needed,and without changing zhe prudent monetary policy.
Zhis downward review in bank charges and interest rates could help achieve zhe kry objectives of stmulating agregate demand,promote zhe resuscilation of firms,improve the cost of doing business and support sustained economic growth and development and thereby going beyond stabilization .These measures also act as,an incentive for borrowing toctimely service,their loan,andcimprove the risk rating and access to cheaper financing from banks.
Moreover,to reduce Credit Risk incthe economy,the CB could create a CREDIT REGISTER and RISK MANAGEMENT in the economy.Registry and Risk management ,governace systems and fostering Credit deciplines in the market.
Of course the Global economy is unstable and zhe CB should be careful in deciding zhe policy,particularly,Interest rate instruments...taking into account the hig depreciation,for if rate is,wrong adjust it might be atcrisk too.But CB must act now to save tommorrow.
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